Triangle Market Summary

We will start with looking at the market statistics for the Triangle, so if you’re just interested in mortgage rates, please skip ahead to the next section.

Starting with Wake County’s statistics, the number of listings is starting to rise again, as you’ll see it’s more than last year at this time.  Interest rates were on the decline for months, and sellers were starting to act.  

You don’t see the closed sales increasing due to the number of new listings on the market yet, but that is more of a lagging effect.

The median sales price is at $475k while the average sales price is at $570k, representing modest rises since last year, but you will see the average sales price through the whole year at $581k is higher than last year by over 4%

Home prices nationally continue to rise, but more so at a historically consistent rate as inflation has decreased drastically over the past year.  

The percents of actual selling price vs what the seller listed their house for remains slightly below 100%.  You’ll see that some people have had to drop the price of their homes as well.  

So this means that in general, you are not seeing bidding wars that are driving up home prices, except for the most sought after homes in the most popular locations.

Oddly enough, days on market continues to decline despite the overall demand being much less than the past few years, and we will look at this more historically in a minute.

One thing to note is that the Housing Affordability Index, which combines Median Household Income with Sales Prices and Interest Rates in a particular region, has risen from a historically unaffordable housing market over the past several years.  This is a good indicator, and is mostly due to the interest rates falling in the August and September months. 

And closely tied with new listings are the Inventory of Homes for sale, which is up 11% over this time last year, and is definitely a good thing for buyers. 

Suburbs Overview

Briefly moving into the suburbs, at a high level, Raleigh’s suburbs are performing pretty typically compared to past performance, with Cary, Apex, and Holly Springs continuing to be the most expensive with the highest demand, Wake Forest remains middle of the road, and Clayton, Knightdale and Fuquay-Varina are the most affordable.

One interesting trend though is you’re starting to see a continual increase in price from Knightdale and Fuquay-Varina, as development and new construction homes continue to push prices up, even as we are approaching the slower, winter months.  

But, Clayton remains the steal of the area with low prices, developing entertainment, and great schools.

Interest Rate Analysis

Now let’s turn our attention to interest rates and future predictions, but before we do, if you need any real estate assistance in the greater Raleigh area, we have one of the top teams in the Triangle and would love to help you!

Interest rates had been falling for months and were in the low 6’s on average, and then in mid-September, the Fed made their first rate cut in years, and it was a big one at a half a percentage point.  

But instead of interest rates continuing to fall, they went back up.  Why would that be?

When the Fed cut rates, they are not specifically cutting mortgage rates, they are cutting the short term, overnight rates that banks charge each other to borrow money. Long term rates, like mortgage rates, are influenced more by the overall economy, and take longer to be influenced as a whole with more factors at play.

So mortgage rates were dropping for months in anticipation of this rate cut, but when the rates were actually cut, especially more than expected, investors viewed this as a sign that inflation was slowing and the economy was on the rise, and poured money into the stock market.  

This reduced the attraction of government bonds to investors, and so the 10 year treasury bond yields, which represent the rates of return the government pays out on bonds, were increased to try to attract investors back.  

Mortgage rates and the 10 year treasury bond yields have historically been closely tied as mortgage bonds attract similar investors, so we saw mortgage rates also rise.  You can see this relationship throughout the past few years as well.

We also saw a similar thing right after the Trump Administration won the election, as investors believe the Administration will boost the economy, so the stock market surged along with the 10 year treasury bonds, and thus mortgage rates.

Future Predictions & Recommendations

What does this mean for the future?  Well if anyone really knew, they would be billionaires as there are so many factors at play.  But at a high level, most major sources predict that we will see a slow and steady decline of rates over time, as the Fed is expected to continue to make small rate cuts through the end of 2024 and early parts of 2025. 

In my opinion, I believe mortgage rates will slowly decline for the rest of the year, but when the Trump Administration takes office, we could see some unpredictable changes in the short term for better or worse.

But despite the unpredictability surrounding the changes in Presidency, overall rates will continue a downward trend, at a slow rate, in 2025.

If rates decline as predicted, there is a chance rates could break into up 5% range by year end.

From a recommendation standpoint for those in the real estate market, if you’re waiting on rates to drop into the 4% range or less, I wouldn’t count on that happening.  

And you can certainly plan on buying now and refinancing in the future, but I wouldn’t count on any major gains from refinancing in the near future, so make sure you are comfortable with your payment.

Now, that does mean that the Spring and Summer markets in 2025 are not anticipated to be as crazy as we may have thought several months ago when interest rates were falling, but demand will be greater than we’ve seen the last two springs and summers.

While I don’t expect any major home price inflation due to the demand, there will certainly be some in comparison to this fall through the winter, so buyers, even though rates are a bit higher right now, home prices will be at their lowest points of the year over the next 3 months.    

Sellers, I would hold off on selling your home to the spring if your situation allows, but if you’re buying and selling in and around the same market, waiting will only benefit you so much as the gains you make from selling your house may be erased when you buy in a hotter market.

Check out our other blogs the best neighborhoods in Raleigh and the pros and cons of living in Raleigh.

I would be happy to talk with you about your specific situation so we can tailor a plan to meet your specific needs.

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