Rob Manfred, the current Commissioner of the MLB, has indicated that he would like to at least have the process in place to expand from 30 to 32 teams by the time he retires in 2029.

That may seem like a ways off, but for a process like this, it’s really just around the corner.

Initial thoughts among league insiders are that there would be a team selected on the east and the west side of the country, and Raleigh has been named as a potential option by many.  

Raleigh already has very strong fan support in the Bring MLB to Raleigh movement, the Carolina Hurricanes Owner has publicly indicated he would lead the effort when it comes time, and even Governor Roy Cooper has expressed his support.  So, the foundation has been laid for a strong desire and support of bringing another major sports team to Raleigh.

But how does Raleigh stack up against the other cities currently thought to be in contention?

The main cities thought to be in contention are Austin and San Antonio together, Charlotte, Mexico City, Montreal, Nashville, Orlando, Portland, Raleigh, San Jose, and Salt Lake City.

As of right now, Nashville and actually Salt Lake City are believed to be the frontrunners, but that’s purely among opinions at this point.

Population and Support

Let’s first compare metro populations of these potential cities:

Mexico City:  21.8M

Austin + San Antonio:  5.05M

Montreal:  4.29M

Charlotte:  2.76M

Orlando:  2.76M

Raleigh:  2.69M

Portland:  2.51M

Nashville:  2.07M

San Jose:  1.94M

Salt Lake City:  1.27M

Raleigh is middle of the pack when comparing these cities, but if looking at pure population, we are larger than many small market teams today, such as Cleveland and Milwaukee.  Raleigh is also projected to be the fourth fastest growing metro over the next 5 years by the Site Selection Group, but Austin is number one and Nashville is number 3, and Charlotte, Orlando, and Salt lake City rank highly in projected growth as well.

But overall, this establishes that Raleigh has enough people to support an MLB team, as we are in-line with the other competing cities, and larger than even some current MLB cities.

The main thing to consider here is attendance, and Raleigh essentially sold out every Carolina Hurricanes home game this year, who’s stadium seats just over 20,000.  With that same attendance at baseball games, MLB Raleigh projected Raleigh to rank #7 in the MLB today on an attendance per capita basis.

Additionally, fan support in Raleigh would be huge for baseball, as college baseball is a major draw and youth leagues in North Carolina have tremendous participation.  Couple that with Raleigh’s closest MLB teams being the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals, the demand for a home town MLB team would be significant.

And, Raleigh does not currently having a major sports team who’s season overlaps baseball’s like some of these other cities have, so there will be less competition for fan attention.

When it comes to support, that was a topic of concern brought up by ESPN for several cities.

There was concern over a lack of overall fan support in San Jose, Orlando, and Charlotte as the movements in those cities have not been measurable to date.

And many of the cities have yet to receive much investor support beyond Raleigh, who has Carolina Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon publicly backing the effort and Governor Roy Cooper voicing support for Raleigh as well.

Before going into the TV Market, please don’t hesitate to reach out if you have any real estate needs in the Raleigh area.  We are experts on the Raleigh area and would love to help you through the buying or selling process.

TV Market

Another major factor for the MLB are the TV markets in these cities, and Raleigh compares pretty favorably here as well believe it or not.  Here are the reported TV market rankings for the competing cities.

San Jose:  10

Orlando:  17

Charlotte:  21

Portland:  22

Raleigh:  23

Nashville:  27

Salt Lake City:  29

Austin + San Antonio:  31 and 35

Mexico City:  Not Reported

Montreal:  Not Reported

Raleigh again sits in the middle with a very respectable rating of 23, and we actually have the #1 TV market in the nation without a locally or regionally broadcasted MLB team.  So like the attendance numbers, Raleigh is in a great position to put up strong viewership numbers for the MLB.

Financials

Financial means and support are clearly a major factor as well when choosing an MLB city.  You need a fan base with the means to be able to attend games, and you need either private investors or significant governmental support to be able to fund the stadium.

As mentioned, Raleigh is one of the ONLY prospective cities to already have a billionaire backing their bid, as Tom Dundon, owner of Raleigh’s other major sports team the NHL’s Carolina Hurricanes, has already stepped forward indicating he will lead the group to put our best foot forward to getting an MLB team to Raleigh. 

While some other cities believe they could pool private investors, others, like Nashville, are counting on using tax dollars to build a stadium, which isn’t always a sure thing.

In regards to fan support, interestingly enough, MLB Raleigh reported that Raleigh is the richest metro, gauged by average annual income and percentage of population that makes over $200k, that is NOT within 100 miles of an MLB team.  So, there will not be a shortage of people with the means to purchase tickets.

The one shortfall for Raleigh in comparison to other cities like Nashville and Charlotte, is that we have fewer corporate headquarters in the city itself, so you could make the argument there is concern over how many business suites would be purchased, which make up a large source of consistent revenue for teams.

Now we do have the Research Triangle Park right next door, which houses nearly 200 companies and while they may not all be headquarters, this hasn’t been an issue for the Carolina Hurricanes to date.  

Stadiums

On the topic of the stadiums themselves, only Mexico City has a stadium that could be utilized today; however, with only roughly 20,000 seats, it would have to be expanded.

Both Salt Lake City and Portland have indicated they have a site that is ideal for a stadium that could be built on almost immediately upon receiving the bid, but there aren’t any other cities that are that far along.  

Raleigh has three potential sites under consideration, one in the proposed Downtown South district, but the more likely one is the 80 acres near the PNC Arena that Tom Dundon apparently already has the rights to develop on.  This area would certainly make sense for a stadium given what’s already around it.

Likely Chances

Now let’s take a look at Raleigh’s real chances here.  When considering the fact that insiders believe there will be a team in the East and the West, the focus for Raleigh’s main competition goes to Nashville, Charlotte, Orlando, Montreal, and potentially Austin and San Antonio.

And when looking at the numbers and ESPN’s arguments for and against, it appears Raleigh would already be ahead of Orlando and Montreal at a minimum, as both cities face challenges.  Orlando already has the Marlins and Rays in Florida, both of which have struggled to garner strong fan support, and Montreal already had the Expos leave years ago, and were also unsuccessful in previous bids during previous expansions.

When looking at Charlotte, there is certainly a real possibility there, but fan support hasn’t been impressive for their existing franchises, and there really hasn’t been much of a fan movement in support of an MLB team to date.  And note, they already have the Triple A Charlotte Knights in a stadium downtown, one in which does not have the ability to be expanded much beyond its’ current 10,000 seat capacity.

Austin and San Antonio are also a real possibility, as there is no major sports team in Austin today and the growth both in population and big business in Austin is impressive.  The only things currently working against Austin are its’ current lack of a large investor, and the fact that the Houston Astros are only 3 hours away, and many Austin residents are passionate fans of the Astros.

Nashville is currently the leading favorite by MLB insiders as it has just about everything you want, a large and fast growing population, a proven ability to support Major League Teams with the Titans, Predators, and Nashville FC, and it has very passionate fans.  

However, there is a pretty large concern regarding funding, as the city does not have a billionaire investor and doesn’t believe they need one, figuring they can rely on tax dollars like they have for the recently announced, $1.2B renovations to the Titan’s stadium.  

When you compare Raleigh to all of these cities, we have a great argument on paper as we measure up well all the way around, and most importantly, we have very strong backing from billionaire Tom Dundon.  

Another thing we have that many don’t is a starving fan base.  The Raleigh area loves baseball, and our closest team is over 4 hours away in Washington DC.  Looking geographically, either Raleigh, Charlotte or Nashville really need one of the teams to cover this starved region of the United States.  Raleigh can show how we have rallied around the Carolina Hurricanes, a sport in which no one would have ever thought a southern city like Raleigh would rabidly support like we have.  

So, with all of these intangibles, we have a great shot, but it still feels like we are an underdog to the more established Nashville, even though we stack up on paper.

Let me know if you think Raleigh has a realistic shot of landing an MLB team, and whether or not you believe we could support it!

And if you’re looking for more to do in Raleigh, check out our blog on the best things to do in Raleigh!

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