I’ll answer these questions and more as I go over the Triangle area housing market statistics through June of 2024.  And overall, I’ve got some good news, and definitely some bad news, depending on whether or not you’re on the buyer or seller side of the transaction.

Triangle Market Overview

Above is the one-pager showing Triangle area market statistics for June of 2024, and my first takeaway here is that closed sales are down nearly 11% from this time last year.  Right there is an indicator of what we have been seeing in the market is that there are fewer buyers in the market right now, but interestingly enough, the number of new listings has also gone up by over 8%!

Stating the obvious, what this leads to is an increase in home inventory across the triangle, which the numbers show as nearly a 10% increase over this time last year.  This is a great trend for home buyers overall as we have had SUCH a shortage of homes in the past few years to choose from, but on the other side, a negative indicator for sellers in that you may see your home sit on the market a bit longer.

You’ll also notice that the average sales price continues to increase across the area to just over $500k, but the percent of list price received is slightly less than a year ago, further illustrating the point that competition is down a bit from years past.

For days on market, which is the days from when the listing goes live to when the house first goes under contract, we are in a period of an all-time low, as competition in areas like Cary, Apex, and Holly Springs remain pretty high.

Suburbs of Raleigh

Looking closer at differences between the various suburbs around Raleigh, Cary, Apex and Holly Springs all continue to see the most competition in the area, with Cary leading the way in all categories.

All of these suburbs are still on average selling for over their list prices, and their overall sales prices at around $680k to $730k as well as prices per square foot at $240/SF to $280/SF are highest in the area. 

Meanwhile, suburbs like Clayton, Knightdale, Fuquay-Varina and even Wake Forest remain on the more affordable side of the area averages, with average sales prices all the way down at $393K for Clayton and up to $600k for Wake Forest, and prices per square foot range from $192 up to $219.  

These suburbs overall are seeing much less competition than Cary, Apex and Holly Springs when you look at the sales prices vs list prices being less than 100%, as well as being on the higher end of the days on market in compared to the region.  

One interesting point is that Fuquay-Varina is showing days on market and sales vs list prices closer to Apex and Holly Springs, which is an indicator that as prices and competition are increasing for Cary and Apex, buyers are being forced to look into Holly Springs, and now that is even moving into Fuquay.

Another thing to note here, is that these suburbs all have tons of new construction communities and thus, many available homes to choose from.  This is part of the reason why competition is a little less in these areas, because the inventory is so much higher than other areas of the Triangle.

So bottom line, the market is slowing a bit and is certainly slower than predictions, but that doesn’t mean in certain areas that homes are not still selling fast.  

For those selling homes, the market has started to lean more so towards a buyers market, and especially if you’re trying to sell in one of these areas with a higher inventory, it will be important to make sure your home is in the best condition it can be.  This could mean doing some painting, replacing carpet, upping your curb appeal, and more in order to increase the interest in your property.

And for the buyers, it’s not a bad market to buy in at the moment from a housing market standpoint, but obviously the elephant in the room is those interest rates, so let’s talk about the predictions moving forward.

And first, for those looking to sell or buy a home in the Raleigh area, we have a highly experienced and top producing team in the Triangle area, and we would love to help you!  And like our name, we specialize in those Relocating to Raleigh, and have the area’s most detailed and complete resources to help you do so.

Interest Rates

Okay, interest rates, what’s happening with them?  Honestly, I don’t feel like anyone truly knows.  Experts at the beginning of year were predicting that at least one, if not multiple rates cuts would have occurred by now, and we would be well on our way to seeing the low 6%s by years end.

Well, we sit here more than halfway through the year, with no rate cuts in sight, and interest rates still in the low to mid 7%s.  

Many know that the Federal Reserve has waited to cut rates as inflation has unexpectedly continued to stay higher than anticipated, such that rate cuts were not needed yet.

But we are finally seeing some reported slow down in inflation reports, which could signify that maybe, just maybe, we could see a rate cut by years end.  Now, I wouldn’t expect any rate cut to move the needle on mortgage rates significantly by years end, but let’s look at what the experts are currently predicting.

Directly from the Federal Reserve, they have indicated that while inflation has headed in the right direction as of late, there is still some ground that needs to be made up to get back to their target of 2% inflation, which has been their threshold for lowering rates.  

The two mortgage giants in the US, Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, both predict that one rate cut will happen late this year and leave us ending the year around 6.5-6.7%.  Both the National Association of Realtors and the Mortgage Bankers Association also believe we will see rates in that same 6.5-6.7% range by year end.

The theme here is mortgage rates will heavily follow the trends of inflation, so as we continue to hear inflation slowing, confidence will gain on mortgage rates starting to make their decline.

Another factor at play here is that there is currently an abnormally large spread between the 30 year fixed mortgage rate and the yield on the 10 year treasury bonds, which has historically been at 170 points but has recently been closer to 250 to 300 points!  

Most economists believe this gap will start to close by the end of the year, and while it will likely not completely go back to the historic average of 170 points by year end, which would alone put mortgage rates at 6%, we will see improvement that will drive rates down some.

So while there are no definite answers on timing, the common theme from economists are that rates will drop over the next 2 years to closer to the lower 6%s to possibly even upper 5%s.  So those holding out for a massive drop, you may be waiting quite a while!

For more information on the Raleigh area, check out some of our videos on the best neighborhoods of Raleigh NC and the top things to do in Raleigh.

As mentioned, if you need any help buying or selling in the Raleigh market, please don’t hesitate to reach out as we would be happy to talk through your specific situation with you.

Please reach out via our contact information below:

Phone:  919-504-5265

Email:  alison@thewgroupraleigh.com

Website:  www.thewgroupraleigh.com