#1 – Declining Growth Rate

This first trend will surprise some, but Raleigh’s growth rate will be less than what we’ve seen in years past.  Now that doesn’t mean Raleigh won’t continue to grow overall, as it’s still projected to be one of the fastest growing metros by adding over 200k people by 2028, but the rate at which we will grow will be less than the blistering pace we’ve see over the past 5 years.

Between 2016 and 2021, Raleigh was the 2nd fastest growing metro in the nation at a rate of 11.1%, or roughly 1.85% per year.  

The rate Raleigh is expected to grow by through 2028 is roughly 1.55%, putting us at the 4th fastest growing metro.  

And while a 0.3% reduction may not seem like a lot, that equals roughly 5,000 fewer people per year than what we saw in years past.

The US News and World Report’s 2023 to 2024 fastest growing metros also has Raleigh at #21 on the list at a 1.22% growth rate.

So why am I highlighting this?  Well, it’s showing that while we are still growing, we are no longer THE hottest place in the nation and we will see fewer relocations here than years past.  

There are many reasons why this is occurring, but some main reasons involve the economy causing fewer people to move in general in the US, and tech companies here are not hiring at the same rapid pace they were during the pandemic.  

There’s also been a trend of people wanting to move towards vacation destinations, like Myrtle Beach, Charleston, and various cities in Florida, which has cut into some of our relocation numbers.

And we were an incredibly popular metro to relocate to during the pandemic, but not all of those people are sticking as we have seen people moving back to where they came from due to back-to-the-office mandates, to be back with family, and more.

So housing market wise, we will see fewer people moving into and within the area than years past, meaning a lesser likelihood of extreme competition when purchasing.

#2 – Return of the Negotiation

The next trend is the return of negotiation.  Negotiations with sellers are now back on the table when thinking about offers to purchase, repairs, and appraisals.  We are no longer seeing ridiculously high offers with massive amounts of non-refundable money put down with conditions of no requested repairs and appraisal waivers.  

It honestly has felt more like a buyers market over the last couple months, but the interest rates coming down will certainly introduce more competition on the buyers side throughout the year.

But, for the market as a whole, I see some level of negotiation staying on the table even as the rates drop.  Now that doesn’t mean some houses in the prime locations won’t see situations with very to little room to negotiate, but the triangle as a whole should still set us up for a fair transaction for both parties.  

#3 – The Market will Follow Interest Rates

The last trend we will see is a more obvious one, but the Raleigh NC housing market in 2024 will closely follow the interest rates.  

Many prospective home buyers and even sellers looking to buy up or down have been watching the rates closely, and as we see the rates continue to drop throughout the spring and summer months, we will see a spike in activity and competition.  

We will see this especially around Federal Reserve Rate Cut announcements, which they have already indicated they are looking to cut rates multiple times in 2024, and many economists expect mortgage rates to gradually drop to the 6% range by year end.

And if the Feds cut rates more than anticipated, we could see an even lower drop.

But the key will be the timing, as there is debate as to when the rate cuts will start happening.  If the rate cuts start during the Feds first meeting in March, and again in May, we will see an increase in activity in the market.  But on the other side, if the Federal Reserve waits to cut rates until later in the year, we will see a slower summer market.

As far as the end of the year, with the consensus of rates continuing to decline through years end, I would expect we will see a little busier fall and early winter than we may have in years past.

So as you can see, the interest rates will closely impact the Raleigh NC housing market, which brings both positives and negatives.  With a more active market, there’s more inventory of homes to choose from, but that could bring more competition in some areas.

However, as I mentioned before, we aren’t seeing the record relocations to Raleigh combined with record low rates like we saw back in 2021 and 2022, so even with increased competition, it will still be a fairly balanced market overall.

Advice for Buyers & Sellers in 2024

Alright, moving to some advice for this 2024 market.

For the buyers, my two biggest pieces of advice would be to educate yourself early and commit when you’re ready.  

Prepare in advance by knowing what you can afford, what type of house you are looking for, and where in the triangle you want to buy to narrow down your options.  

And when you do decide to jump into the market and you find a house that meets your criteria, be ready to put that offer in.  Hesitation in active markets can either lose you the house, or potentially allow time for other offers to come in that may drive up the price. 

Sellers, if you can hold out until those interest rates fall, competition will be back.  But it won’t be like years past where houses sold as-is, so make sure you get your house in good shape before listing, and while it may be a pain, even just a new coat of paint in certain areas has proven to make a big difference on activity.

Check out our blogs on the best neighborhoods in Raleigh NC as well as the pros and cons of Raleigh NC!

If you need any real estate assistance in the greater Raleigh area, please don’t hesitate to reach out!  So many have already contacted us from these blogs, and we would love to hear from you too!

Please reach out via our contact information below:

Phone:  919-504-5265

Email:  Alison@thewgroupraleigh.com

Website:  www.thewgroupraleigh.com